• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 December 19

10:32 Brent Crude futures price down up 0.20% to $56.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.04% to $46.64
10:14 THE Alliance unveils enhanced service network for 2019
09:57 Finnish Transport Safety Agency set to contribute to automation of maritime navigation
09:35 FESCO BoD approved new composition of Executive Board
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,395 points

2018 December 18

18:21 Uniper SE and MOL enter into agreement on FSRU project in Germany, and one additional LNG transportation agreement
18:00 Throughput of Chinese ports grew by 4.3% to 8.47 billion tonnes in 11M’18
17:46 Rolls-Royce to deliver advanced ship technology to two more expedition cruise vessels for Mystic Cruises
17:43 Aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth enters LR class
17:27 SOL adds Finnish port of Pietarsaari/Jakobstad to the Zeebrugge route network
17:04 Finnpilot Pilotage BoD decided for no increase in the pilotage fees for 2019
16:42 GTT bags yet another tank design order for LNGC duo
16:38 PRA starts construction of new plastics recycling facility at the Port of Amsterdam
16:25 Arctia and Meritaito join forces to expand their range of services
16:09 Crowley integrates DFTS management into government solutions group to unify supply chain services
15:42 KN enhances its relations with American LNG giants
15:18 BW Group Limited purchased 137,000 shares
14:53 Icebreakers of FSUE Rosmorport assisted 680 ships in navigation season 2018-2019
14:28 Shell Oman and Port of Duqm ink agreement to develop fuel bunkering facilities
14:11 Golar LNG receives LNTP for an FLNG vessel for Greater Tortue / Ahmeyim Project P1, West Africa
13:47 WEG and Praxis sign MoU to support Damen Saab bid for the Brazilian Navy
13:41 Eni gets approval of the investment plan for Merakes Development Project in Indonesia
13:22 Sovcomflot closes USD 264 million long-term revolving credit facility
12:58 Bunker prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:40 Antwerp, Belgium will host the 3rd European Environmental Ports Conference on 12-13 June 2019
12:19 Keppel receives limited notice to proceed for GIMI FLNG
11:57 3 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on December 17-18
11:35 Terna’s MONITA HVDC Project: Nexans reaches key milestone with successful completion of submarine power cable
11:10 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 5.4% to 17.96 million TEUs in Jan-Nov’18
10:46 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in 11M’18 down 1.8% Y-o-Y to 45.49 million tonnes
10:23 Maersk announces rate increase for Far East to North Europe trade
10:05 Brent Crude futures price down 1.53% to $58.72, Light Sweet Crude – down 1.61% to $49.39
09:47 Austal export opportunity supported by Australian Government financing
09:31 Rosatom drafted Rules for providing navigational and hydrographic support in NSR waters
09:14 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,406 points

2018 December 17

18:23 Sembcorp Marine retains its position as Asia’s top cruise ship repair and upgrade solutions provider with newbuilds projects delivered in 2018
18:02 USPA announced tenders for dredging in Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports
17:48 SITC holds naming and delivery ceremony for M/V SITC SENDAI
17:37 ONE to implement LSF surcharge in China and Taiwan
17:15 NCSP Group's consolidated cargo turnover for January-October totaled 116,946 thousand tons
16:41 Moody's reaffirms Panama Canal's A2 long-term rating with stable outlook
16:26 Port of Oakland shatters 11-year-old record for November imports
15:54 Yamal LNG will build one more natural gas liquefaction facility
15:27 Nor-Shipping and Nordic Innovation team up for “Sea Meets Land” funding initiative
15:17 PETRONAS releases Annual Activity Outlook report for 2019-2021
14:56 NOVATEK elects a new member to the Management Board
14:37 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 15,328 in RF spot market
14:13 Damen’s triple delivery for Murjan Al Sharq Marine Contracting
13:41 Pacific Fleet and Indian Navy warships practice inspection operation as part of Indra Navy 2018 Russian-Indian naval exercise
13:19 Queen Máxima christens Van Oord's TSHD Vox Amalia
12:58 9 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on December 16-17
12:36 Samsung Heavy Industries secures yet another contract for an LNGC
12:23 Saab secures shipping safety contract for Shangai container port
12:00 Composit supports the 6th Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
11:42 Milaha unveils large plans to upgrade its shipyard in Mesaieed
11:01 IBIA welcomes decision by IMO’s MSC to add new item to its agenda to address concerns about fuel safety
10:43 SENER to design passenger vessel for Tanzanian ferry operator
10:17 Brent Crude futures price down 0.02% to $60.27, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.21% to $51.58
09:58 Port of Singapore throughput in 11M’18 grew by 0.4% Y-o-Y to 575.44 million tonnes
09:40 Floating regasification plant “Marshal Vasilevsky” arrives in Kaliningrad