• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 March 23

16:03 NCL announces plans for new staff training facility
15:54 ABP Humber provides land to support KIA expansion
14:22 SeaPlanner to support marine coordination for Taiwan's Formosa I offshore wind farm
13:31 Høglund awarded fuel-gas supply systems contract for six Hurtigruten passenger ships retrofits
12:25 McDermott secures substantial offshore EPCI contract in the Middle East
11:21 MacArtney provide Active Heave Compensated MERMAC winch solution to Alcatel Submarine Networks for planned subsea offshore operations

2019 March 22

18:06 GE and Nedstack enter into a partnership to develop hydrogen fuel cell power systems for cruise vessels
17:57 Fitch affirms Deloports rating at 'BB-' with stable outlook
17:36 Samsung Heavy Industries receives a LNGC order
17:05 Maritime Union of Australia issues notice of legal rolling industrial actions at DP WORLD terminals in Australia
16:44 NATO allied nations from last year’s NATO Summit to attend Unmanned Maritime Systems Technology 2019
16:44 Maersk partners with global companies to trial biofuel
16:22 15th edition of Expomaritt Exposhipping Istanbul to be held 2-5 April 2019
16:05 Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition partners with Maersk in world's largest maritime biofuel pilot
15:30 Hapag-Lloyd announces 2018 results
14:03 ONE unveils enhanced intra-Asia –East India service network for 2019
13:54 Royal IHC to build second TSHD for National Marine Dredging Company
13:41 IMO expands collaborative efforts to promote maritime security
13:17 REMPEITC-Caribe training workshop funded by IMO held in Guyana
12:55 Workshop promoting good practice in spill preparedness and response held in Côte d'Ivoire
12:30 Bunker prices go up at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
12:03 18 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 21-22
11:42 Gazpromneft – Lubricants starts bunkering with marine oils in Primorsk
11:08 MSC Bellissima, MSC Cruises’ latest newbuild visits Valletta Cruise Port
10:50 Maritime Incubator to be established at the Port of Gdansk
10:49 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Mar.22
10:29 Baltic Dry Index is down to 695 points
10:08 ZIM net loss up to $119.9 million in 2018
09:51 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.21% to $67.72, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.23% to $59.84
09:23 Manufacturing at the Port of Riga beneficial for both businesses and the Port
09:08 DEME Offshore announces Moray East wind farm Tier One suppliers
08:32 Rhenus establishes its own network in South Africa by acquiring World Net Logistics

2019 March 21

18:05 Dublin Bay Biosphere to host international UNESCO EuroMAB Conference
17:53 Detachment of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet completed transfer through the Suez Canal
17:28 McDermott awarded ethylene contract in Russia
17:05 IMO and Saudi Arabia organize course for members of three key regional maritime security agreements to promote maritime security
16:35 Topaz secures contract extension with BP for 12 vessels in Azerbaijan
16:05 Incat announces construction of a 35m Catamaran Passenger Ferry for Samso Rederi
15:52 Kalmar's Eco Reachstackers and Empty Container Handlers to help Ter Haak Group Amsterdam improve the sustainability of its operations
15:31 Severnaya Verf lays down second processing trawler of Project 170701 for Norebo Holding
15:08 German shipyard Lürssen launches project Fiji yacht named Madsummer
14:39 GoodFuels and REINPLUS FIWADO Bunker fuel first inland vessel on 100% sustainable biofuel
14:13 Incat Crowther 35m ferry for Samso Rederi
13:55 Nuclear-powered container carrier Sevmorput on her first voyage under Arctic LNG 2 project
13:24 Andrei Chibis appointed Acting Governor of Murmansk Region
13:17 Coast Guard continues to break ice on Penobscot River to start on the Kennebec River
12:40 Murmansk Region Governor announces resignation
12:00 Steel cut for first short-sea LNG bunker vessel for Eesti Gaas at Damen Yichang Shipyard, China
11:39 15 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 20-21
11:13 Bunker prices go down at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:50 Doha to host Ports & Maritime Evolution, Rail & Logistics Evolution, Road & Logistics Evolution Qatar Assembly & Expo in September’19
10:27 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.16% to $68.61, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.02% to $60.24
10:08 MAN receives an order for two-stroke engines from Eastern Pacific Shipping
10:05 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning March, 21
09:59 2018 revenues of FSUE Rosmorport grew by 7% Y-o-Y to over RUB 26 billion
09:22 Baltic Dry Index is down to 709 points
09:08 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
09:00 PSA, PFR and IFM investors partner to jointly acquire the deepwater container terminal Gdańsk from Macquarie infrastructure and Real Assets, MTAA SUPER, AustralianSuper and Statewide Super
08:36 Port Canaveral starts construction of new Cruise Terminal 3 complex
07:58 SeaKing Electrical completes DFDS ferry upgrades in France