DNV GL presents Energy Transition Outlook 2020
The behavioural and economic ramifications of COVID-19 will permanently reduce global energy demand, according to DNV GL’s newly published Energy Transition Outlook.
Compared to the pre-pandemic forecast, energy demand will be lowered 6-8% each year to the middle of the century. COVID-19 has prompted major behavioural shifts important to energy consumption, as demonstrated by reduction in long distance travel and the increase in home office, both of which are responsible for the peak in transport energy demand and oil demand in 2019. DNV GL believes these trends are likely to have lasting societal effects, which will a have major impact on energy demand from transport and commercial buildings.
Carbon dioxide emissions are set to fall 8% this year, making 2019 the year of peak carbon dioxide emissions. However, we will still blow past the carbon budget for a 1.5-degree future in 2028, and if we are to meet this target, we must repeat the 2020 emissions saving every year until the middle of the century.
And despite these significant shifts in the energy system, the transition is affordable; as a proportion of GDP, humanity will be spending less on energy in 2050 (1.6% of global GDP) compared to 2018 (3% of GDP). As the world will spend an ever-smaller share of GDP on energy, it allows policy makers additional room to take the extraordinary actions required to decarbonize the energy mix.
The rapid rise of electric vehicles is perhaps the shining example of how policymakers can transform an industry. DNV GL forecasts that by 2032 half of new car sales will be electric. This will cause a steep reduction in oil demand from road transport, which DNV GL forecasts will decrease by 56% from 2018 to 2050. The same policy levers must be applied to stimulate other technologies that are vital to reduce energy use and emissions. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), for example, is a vital component in decarbonizing natural gas, including the production of blue hydrogen, but a lack of policy coordination means that by 2050 CCS will only capture 11% of carbon emissions despite elements of the technology first appearing in the 1970s.
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About the Energy Transition Outlook
DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook is an independent forecast of the world’s energy future through to 2050. Analysing global and regional demand and supply of energy and the competition between and development of the various energy sources, and their interplay with population and economic development, policy and technology, the forecast outlines DNV GL’s view of the most likely trajectory of the energy system. The forecast is delivered by DNV GL’s corporate research unit in combination with more than 100 experts from the company's business areas, and aided by 30 external experts.
