• 2018 October 11 15:24

    MABUX warns bunker prices may be vulnerable amid the uncertainties on both the supply and demand side

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes rallied last week to their highest level since November 2014 supported by disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico related to Hurricane Michael. However there is downward correction on the market at the moment: API reported a major build of 9.75 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending October 5. Anyway there is a number of uncertainties which may cause a state of high vulnerability for the fuel indexes in a short-term. On the supply side, there’s uncertainty about how much Iranian oil the United States will man-age to choke off. Then there’s uncertainty about how much spare capacity Iran’s fellow OPEC members and non-OPEC Russia could summon to replace Iranian losses. Finally, on the demand side, there’s uncertainty whether oil prices at four-year highs and consequently, fuel prices at multiple year highs, are already denting oil demand growth.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), finally demonstrated irregular changes in the period of Oct.04 - Oct.11:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 491.57 to 490.93 USD/MT (-0.64)
    180 HSFO - up from 533.00 to 535.21 USD/MT      (+2.21)
    MGO         - down from 762.36 to 752.71 USD/MT  (-9.65)


    Goldman Sachs said in a note that the oil market could swing into a surplus in early 2019 as spare capacity is deployed. As per Bank, production in Libya and Nigeria was higher than expected, by 300,000 bpd, and coupled with Saudi Arabia’s production ramp-up and the political stabilization of Iraq, which improved prospects for higher output from Kurdistan, it could provide a supply buffer for the final quarter of the year. The investment bank’s warning might not have an immediate effect on prices as traders are at the moment too preoccupied with the worry that OPEC’s spare capacity is at a historic low, but once it sinks in, prices could reverse their climb.

    The U.S. State Department in turn criticized Saudi Arabia for not using its spare capacity. A State Department official said that the U.S. was working with Saudi Arabia to use the spare capacity that they are not deploying, while also insisting that the U.S. was doing its part. The U.S. State Department also said OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia continue to withhold production.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its outlook for the global economy, expecting a growth rate of 3.7 percent this year and next, down from the 3.9 percent the Fund expected back in April. The IMF cited the uneven nature of the economic expansion, the increase in the likelihood of negative shocks, and the unsustainable policy support behind much of the growth. Robust economic growth underpins the assumed strong increase in oil demand, so any faltering in the global economy exposes downside risk to oil prices.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that rising oil prices may hurt demand in some of the world’s fastest-growing nations unless producers take steps to boost supplies. India is among emerging market economies struggling with a combination of a weakening currency and rising oil prices. The country, which enjoyed a 12th straight month of demand growth in August, could see its trade deficit worsen because of the high crude. India moved to cut retail fuel prices on Oct.04.

    Meantime, India discussed last week the possibility of trading oil with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran either in Indian rupees or under a barter agreement. The idea to use rupees or a barter system comes as U.S. sanctions on Iran draws near and are just over four weeks away. It was also discussed the possibility of creating a rupee-yuan payment mechanism for trading with China.

    At the same time, Indian buyers reduced U.S. crude purchases and loaded up on Iranian oil ahead of the restart of U.S. sanctions next month. U.S. oil shipments to India fell to 84,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, down 75 percent from a record high of 347,000 bpd in June. India accounted for 12 percent of U.S. crude exports in June. Meantime, Indian buyers lifted purchases of Iranian crude to 502,000 bpd in September, up 111,000 bpd over August. It was also reported that India has plans to purchase 9 million barrels of oil from Iran in November, contra-ry to earlier reports that led the market to believe India had no plans to do so.

    Iran’s crude oil exports plunged to 1.1 million bpd in the first seven days of October, sliding further down from 1.6 million bpd in September. According to tanker tracking, not a single tanker headed to Europe in the first seven days of October. Iran’s tankers were bound instead for China, India, and the Middle East. Besides, some one dozen Iranian oil tankers may have shut off their position devices last month. As a result, nearly 207,000 bpd of Iran’s oil exports that left Iranian oil terminals last month is reportedly unaccounted for.

    A tanker collision a month ago at a critical Venezuelan port may take longer to repair than initially expected. One of the docks will take probably another month before it can come back online, which will likely lead to steeper oil export losses. Venezuela’s exports fell to just 1.1 million bpd in September.

    A trade war between the United States and China is still a potential catalyst: as it escalates global oil demand is sure to suffer. While China hasn’t officially placed a tariff on U.S. oil, refiners and traders appear to be increasingly wary of purchasing oil from the U.S. – suggesting they believe the tariffs may be on the agenda.

    It was reported a dip of 2 in the oil and gas rig count in the United States last week, bringing the total number of active oil and gas rigs to 1,052 (the number of active oil rigs decreasing by 2 to reach 861). The oil and gas rig count is now 116 up from this time last year.

    The Yemeni Houthi rebels have detained 10 vessels, including fuel tankers, at the port of Hodeidah, and are preventing them from offloading their cargo. The vessels waiting to unload at Hodeidah, and some of them had been held up at the port for as long as six months. The port city is currently a battlefield between the Iran-backed Houthis and the coalition of Saudi and Emirati forces. Yemen’s oil reserves have been estimated at 3 billion barrels. Even before the start of the civil war, the country wasn’t a major oil producer, especially compared to the other countries in the Middle East.

    Persisting uncertainties on both the supply and demand side are making the market and participants nervous. Fuel indexes could be more vulnerable than usual to hints, news, and comments until the U.S. sanctions on Iran return in four weeks. We assume bunker prices may change irregular next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 October 23

18:01 Sea trials of SMK-2187, modular search-and-rescue boat of Project 23370М, completed in Kamchatka
17:29 Stevedoring division of UCL Holding handled 27.2 million tonnes of cargo in 9M’18
17:00 Throughput of Chinese ports grew by 4.3% to 6.92 billion tonnes in 9M’18
16:05 MPC Maritime acquires three Panamax-sized container vessels
15:22 Pirate attack averted off the east coast of Somalia
15:03 WinGD set to increase technical capacity through new Engineering Centre in Shanghai
14:57 KfW IPEX-Bank and Commerzbank finance third expedition ship for Hapag-Lloyd Cruises
14:15 Crowley christens Commitment Class combination container/roll on-roll off ship
13:40 Port of Immingham is home to award-winning rooftop solar array
13:14 Verifavia Shipping signs cooperations with two major global ship managers
12:26 Bunker prices are flat in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:01 OOCL introduces new Asia – West Africa direct services
11:42 RS class: new supertanker successfully performed ship-to-ship LNG bunkering
11:24 DP World reports 3.7% gross like - for - like volume growth in 9m 2018
10:59 Woodside signs cooperation agreement with ENN
10:35 INPEX-operated Ichthys LNG Project commences LNG shipment
09:58 Brent Crude futures price down 0.38% to $79.53, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.27% to $69.17
09:24 IMO approves a programme of actions to deliver the initial strategy on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from ships.
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,579 points
07:14 GTT receives a new order from DSME for the tank design of an LNG carrier

2018 October 22

18:33 Rolls-Royce and Sunseeker agree new framework agreement for supply of MTU engines
18:32 OOCL introduces new Mediterranean and West Africa direct service
18:29 Rotterdam expects record 50,000-tonne shipment of pig iron
18:01 Arctic Council meeting of Environment Ministers ends with talks about future cooperation
17:39 IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee meets
17:16 Glavgosexpertiza approves modernization of onshore facilities in Salekhard
16:22 Humber International Enterprise Park plans reshaped after public feedback
15:34 Nornickel’s Polar Transportation Division carried 2.4 million tonnes of cargo in navigation season 2018
15:10 ESPO congratulates Port of Valencia, Ports of Bremen, Port of Moerdijk and Port of Tangier for renewing Ecoports’ Environmental Standard
14:17 Sovcomflot named a finalist in four different categories of 2018 Lloyd’s List Global Awards
13:55 Onezhsky Shipyard delivered ice-class buoy tender named Fortuna
13:23 Pavilion Energy and BW ink deal for long-term charter of two Singapore-flagged LNG newbuilds
12:58 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 21,455 in RF spot market
12:36 LUKOIL BoD recommends interim dividend amount
12:13 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in 9M’18 down 1.5% Y-o-Y to 37.46 million tonnes
11:51 Power of gender diversity on the agenda at Seatrade Maritime Middle East
11:32 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 5.6% to 14.69 million TEUs in Jan-Sep’18
11:09 Abu Dhabi Ports collaborates with MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company on international blockchain solution Silsal
10:50 Port of Singapore throughput in 9M’18 grew by 0.9% Y-o-Y to 470.49 million tonnes
10:28 Brent Crude futures price up 0.69% to $80.34, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.68% to $69.76
10:09 NYK PCTC receives special award from the Association for Rescue at Sea
09:47 STLC to obtain additional RUB 5.9 billion of federal subsidies in 2018
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,765 points
09:06 ABS awards AIP to HHI’s standardized FPSO topside
08:08 DP World, UAE Region wins Terminal Operator of the Year at Maritime Standards Awards
06:22 ABS awards AIP to HHI’s deepwater FLNG hull

2018 October 21

08:54 20,000 TEU COSCO SHIPPING Sagittarius named in Shanghai
08:50 CFO Paul Smits leaves the Port of Rotterdam Authority
07:52 COSCO SHIPPING starts shipment of Toyota exhibits

2018 October 20

08:47 Boskalis, Van Hattum en Blankevoort and Mobilis construct deep-sea quay for the new HES Hartel Tank Terminal at Maasvlakte
08:10 Navios Partners announce filing of F - 1 for direct listing of Navios Containers
08:06 Maersk Line increases FAK rates for Northern Europe to Middle East and ISC trade
08:04 U.S. Navy contracts Austal to order materials for EPF 13
07:44 EU Commission launches the European Network of U-space Demonstrators

2018 October 19

18:42 ABN AMRO, Samsung SDS and the Port of Rotterdam Authority launch container logistics blockchain pilot
18:07 Stena Line's battery hybrid vessel completes its first month of operation
17:56 ABN AMRO, Samsung SDS and Port of Rotterdam Authority launch container logistics blockchain pilot
17:35 Port of Gdansk participated in the CILF 2018 fair in China
17:11 Gdansk pays a visit to Singapore
16:57 Testbed established for Internet of Ships Open Platform