• 2018 October 11 15:24

    MABUX warns bunker prices may be vulnerable amid the uncertainties on both the supply and demand side

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes rallied last week to their highest level since November 2014 supported by disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico related to Hurricane Michael. However there is downward correction on the market at the moment: API reported a major build of 9.75 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending October 5. Anyway there is a number of uncertainties which may cause a state of high vulnerability for the fuel indexes in a short-term. On the supply side, there’s uncertainty about how much Iranian oil the United States will man-age to choke off. Then there’s uncertainty about how much spare capacity Iran’s fellow OPEC members and non-OPEC Russia could summon to replace Iranian losses. Finally, on the demand side, there’s uncertainty whether oil prices at four-year highs and consequently, fuel prices at multiple year highs, are already denting oil demand growth.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), finally demonstrated irregular changes in the period of Oct.04 - Oct.11:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 491.57 to 490.93 USD/MT (-0.64)
    180 HSFO - up from 533.00 to 535.21 USD/MT      (+2.21)
    MGO         - down from 762.36 to 752.71 USD/MT  (-9.65)


    Goldman Sachs said in a note that the oil market could swing into a surplus in early 2019 as spare capacity is deployed. As per Bank, production in Libya and Nigeria was higher than expected, by 300,000 bpd, and coupled with Saudi Arabia’s production ramp-up and the political stabilization of Iraq, which improved prospects for higher output from Kurdistan, it could provide a supply buffer for the final quarter of the year. The investment bank’s warning might not have an immediate effect on prices as traders are at the moment too preoccupied with the worry that OPEC’s spare capacity is at a historic low, but once it sinks in, prices could reverse their climb.

    The U.S. State Department in turn criticized Saudi Arabia for not using its spare capacity. A State Department official said that the U.S. was working with Saudi Arabia to use the spare capacity that they are not deploying, while also insisting that the U.S. was doing its part. The U.S. State Department also said OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia continue to withhold production.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its outlook for the global economy, expecting a growth rate of 3.7 percent this year and next, down from the 3.9 percent the Fund expected back in April. The IMF cited the uneven nature of the economic expansion, the increase in the likelihood of negative shocks, and the unsustainable policy support behind much of the growth. Robust economic growth underpins the assumed strong increase in oil demand, so any faltering in the global economy exposes downside risk to oil prices.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that rising oil prices may hurt demand in some of the world’s fastest-growing nations unless producers take steps to boost supplies. India is among emerging market economies struggling with a combination of a weakening currency and rising oil prices. The country, which enjoyed a 12th straight month of demand growth in August, could see its trade deficit worsen because of the high crude. India moved to cut retail fuel prices on Oct.04.

    Meantime, India discussed last week the possibility of trading oil with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran either in Indian rupees or under a barter agreement. The idea to use rupees or a barter system comes as U.S. sanctions on Iran draws near and are just over four weeks away. It was also discussed the possibility of creating a rupee-yuan payment mechanism for trading with China.

    At the same time, Indian buyers reduced U.S. crude purchases and loaded up on Iranian oil ahead of the restart of U.S. sanctions next month. U.S. oil shipments to India fell to 84,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, down 75 percent from a record high of 347,000 bpd in June. India accounted for 12 percent of U.S. crude exports in June. Meantime, Indian buyers lifted purchases of Iranian crude to 502,000 bpd in September, up 111,000 bpd over August. It was also reported that India has plans to purchase 9 million barrels of oil from Iran in November, contra-ry to earlier reports that led the market to believe India had no plans to do so.

    Iran’s crude oil exports plunged to 1.1 million bpd in the first seven days of October, sliding further down from 1.6 million bpd in September. According to tanker tracking, not a single tanker headed to Europe in the first seven days of October. Iran’s tankers were bound instead for China, India, and the Middle East. Besides, some one dozen Iranian oil tankers may have shut off their position devices last month. As a result, nearly 207,000 bpd of Iran’s oil exports that left Iranian oil terminals last month is reportedly unaccounted for.

    A tanker collision a month ago at a critical Venezuelan port may take longer to repair than initially expected. One of the docks will take probably another month before it can come back online, which will likely lead to steeper oil export losses. Venezuela’s exports fell to just 1.1 million bpd in September.

    A trade war between the United States and China is still a potential catalyst: as it escalates global oil demand is sure to suffer. While China hasn’t officially placed a tariff on U.S. oil, refiners and traders appear to be increasingly wary of purchasing oil from the U.S. – suggesting they believe the tariffs may be on the agenda.

    It was reported a dip of 2 in the oil and gas rig count in the United States last week, bringing the total number of active oil and gas rigs to 1,052 (the number of active oil rigs decreasing by 2 to reach 861). The oil and gas rig count is now 116 up from this time last year.

    The Yemeni Houthi rebels have detained 10 vessels, including fuel tankers, at the port of Hodeidah, and are preventing them from offloading their cargo. The vessels waiting to unload at Hodeidah, and some of them had been held up at the port for as long as six months. The port city is currently a battlefield between the Iran-backed Houthis and the coalition of Saudi and Emirati forces. Yemen’s oil reserves have been estimated at 3 billion barrels. Even before the start of the civil war, the country wasn’t a major oil producer, especially compared to the other countries in the Middle East.

    Persisting uncertainties on both the supply and demand side are making the market and participants nervous. Fuel indexes could be more vulnerable than usual to hints, news, and comments until the U.S. sanctions on Iran return in four weeks. We assume bunker prices may change irregular next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 June 25

18:06 VARD orders seawater cooling for newbuild cable layer
17:34 ABP Humber Estuary Services (HES) purchased new £600,000 survey vessel
17:06 Q-Flex vessel sets delivery benchmark in Turkey
16:28 Awilco LNG posts vessel and contract update
16:22 Zhatai Shipyard to be provided with RUB 4.1 billion of budget investments in 2019–2021
15:59 Maersk introduces Maersk Spot, a new fully online product that simplifies the buying process for customers
15:15 NCSP Group announced decisions made at annual general shareholders' meeting
14:51 IMO: committed to implementation
14:20 ABP King’s Lynn investment attracts new construction industry customer
13:37 MAN B&W dual-fuel engines pass half-million hour milestone
12:59 ECSA celebrates the Day of the Seafarer
12:47 Bunker market sees mixed price movements at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:58 Fuel technologies in the spotlight at ABS Hellenic Technical Committee
11:39 Dickson obtains status of international port
10:58 MEYER WERFT hands over Spirit of Discovery to the British cruise line Saga Cruises
10:42 Concordia Damen ships 18 hulls from Shanghai to Rotterdam
10:24 Gender equality is the theme of Day of the Seafarer 2019
10:03 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.81% to $63.66, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.88% to $57.39
09:46 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, June 25
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,258 points

2019 June 24

18:05 Training Montenegro to combat oil spills
17:50 Four cruise ships visit the Port of Riga at the same time
17:27 Finnish Government proposes supplementary appropriation of EUR 40 million for basic infrastructure management
17:05 Austal delivers third guardian class patrol boat to the Australian Department of Defence
16:47 Incat Crowther announces contract to design a 65m catamaran passenger ferry
16:46 Construction and operation of dual-fuel ships has low economic efficiency – USC President
16:45 Maersk Drilling completes sale of jack-up Mærsk Giant
16:24 USC set to build floating electricity-generating facilities running on LNG supplied by bunkering ships
16:03 Van Oord and Mammoet enter into cooperation with scale-up Verton
15:45 United Shipbuilding Corporation to launch the first LNG-powered ferry for Ust-Luga – Baltijsk line in late July
15:30 United Shipbuilding Corporation establishes USC-Propulsion and USC-Interior subdivisions
15:03 MOL signs deal on a long-term charter contract to utilize "MOL FSRU Challenger" for Hong Kong Offshore LNG Terminal Project
14:42 New USC Vice-President, Civil Shipbuilding, to get into office on 10 July 2019
14:21 USC expects its Astrakhan cluster to build 12 river-sea class ships per year
14:03 Yang Ming announces new China-Thailand direct service
13:37 Port of Rotterdam Authority to collaborate with four new companies
13:25 Igor Vasilyev appointed as Acting General Director of FTI Rostransmodernizatsiya
13:02 ARIES gained ABS Certification: Middle East 1 st Remote Inspection Techniques specialist
12:20 BC Ferries releases year-end results
12:10 Keel laid for the first of Damen’s revolutionary new FCS 7011 Crew Change
11:56 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 15,377 in RF spot market
11:29 FESCO to launch new container train to China via Far East overland route
10:58 Southern Center of Shipbuilding and Ship Repair acquired property of Krasniye Barrikady plant
10:35 Satti floating drilling unit owned by Kazmortransflot delivered to Azerbaijan
10:13 Throughput of Chinese ports grew by 4.1% to 5.5 billion tonnes in Jan-May’2019
09:53 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning June, 24
09:52 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.4% to $64.71, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.68% to $57.82
09:34 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 7.7% to 7.55 million TEUs in Jan-May’2019
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,239 points

2019 June 23

16:29 INPEX submits revised plan of development for Abadi LNG Project
15:13 Oceanwide Expeditions: Hondius sister ship m/v Janssonius ordered for 2021
14:19 CMA CGM announces FAK rates on Asia - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka service
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12:43 Danske Commodities signs 20-year PPA with Hywind Scotland wind farm
10:29 TMC sets up office to support Chinese yards

2019 June 22

15:24 AAPA selects Christopher Connor as its new CEO
12:37 TMC contracted by VARD to supply marine compressors for Viking Cruises' vessels
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10:13 Port of Oakland steps up as ships carry bigger loads than ever
10:05 Coast Guard responds to barge aground in Naknek, Alaska