• 2018 September 20 21:17

    Expert says production declines and geopolitical unrest may push bunker prices up

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have not had any firm trend during the week: fuel markets are trying to make sense out of both supply and demand questions as well as geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC downgraded demand while the IEA said in a report that supply outages are tightening up the oil market.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of Sep.13 - Sep.20:
        
    380 HSFO – up from 448.79 to 451.57 USD/MT     (+2.78)
    180 HSFO – up from 494.86 to 495.79 USD/MT     (+0.93)
    MGO        – down from 714.14 to 710.29 USD/MT (-3.85)

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the oil market is tightening up. Global supply surpassed 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, a new record high. Production even rose from OPEC, despite turmoil seen in several member countries. As per EIA, the main reason for the volatility is the ongoing supply losses from Venezuela, combined with the disruptions in Iran related to U.S. sanctions. Venezuela’s production fell by another 40,000 bpd or so, taking output down to just 1.24 million bpd. It may end the year at 1 million bpd or lower. Meanwhile, buyers are already cutting their purchases of Iranian oil ahead of the November 4 deadline.

    OPEC in turn cut its 2019 oil demand forecast because of economic headwinds. The 1.41 mil-lion bpd demand growth forecast is 20,000 bpd lower than last month’s figure.

    China is going to retaliate against new U.S. trade measures after Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The tariffs are likely to limit economic activity in both China and the United States, potentially hitting growth in demand for oil as less fuel is consumed to move goods for trade.

    U.S. sanctions on Iran are set to go into effect in November, but countries have already been slashing purchases. China however has said that it would not stop buying Iranian oil (although Beijing has agreed not to increase its oil purchases from Iran). Between January and August, Iran was sending on average 660,000 bpd of oil to its biggest oil customer. Total Iranian oil shipments for September slumped to 1.3 million bpd through September 13, compared to just above 2 million bpd in August, when Iranian exports started to fall noticeably. Although the shipment gap is unlikely to signal that China has been purposefully scaling back purchases to comply with U.S. pressure to have Iranian oil sales at zero, it could mean that Chinese refiners were looking for better terms for Iranian oil purchases.

    Iran in turn has started to store oil on tankers in the Persian Gulf. Shipments are set to average as little as 1.5 million barrels a day in September according to the preliminary loading program, compared to around 2.8 million barrels a day of oil exports in April and May. Between 2012 and 2016, Iran stored millions of barrels of oil on supertankers because it could not export enough. That practice is making a comeback.

    The protests and riots in Iraq’s oil-rich southern region are flaring up again, potentially posing a threat to lose upwards of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels of production in the country’s record oil export levels. The lack of spare capacity makes such an outage especially worrying.

    U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry said during his meeting with Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow last week that the United States welcomes competition from Russia on the global energy markets, but Russia can no longer use energy as an economic weapon. He also confirmed that the U.S. could impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and more energy sanctions were being planned. Novak, for his part, said that Russia agrees that energy cannot be a tool to exercise pressure and that consumers should be able to choose the suppliers. Russian minister sees huge uncertainty on the market – how the countries, which buy almost 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil will act. Russia could step in if the market needs more supply. The country has potential to raise production by 300,000 barrels per day mid-term.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Sep.11 that the U.S. bypassed Saudi Arabia in February to become the second largest global oil producer. It was the first time in more than 20 years that the U.S. out produced Saudi Arabia. Then in June and August, U.S. output bypassed Russia for the first time since February 1999. The EIA also expects that U.S. crude oil production, most of it light sweet crude, will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019. U.S. production this year is expected to grow 1.31 million bpd to 10.66 million bpd, and 840,000 bpd to 11.5 million bpd next year.

    The South China Sea has been a source of territorial conflict for years, but the Philippines and China are nearing a deal on joint development of natural gas reserves in the region. If a deal is reached, it would be a major win for Beijing as it seeks to extend its claim on territory in the sea, while also clearing some problems towards gas development.

    The global oil/fuel markets remain fragile because of production declines and geopolitical unrest. We expect bunker prices may continue upward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 February 19

16:29 TMA Logistics, CTU and VCL join forces to establish Amsterdam-Utrecht-Rotterdam-Corridor
16:21 NIBULON shipbuilders finish constructing a series of POSS-115 Project tugs
16:03 MOL conducts underwater drone demonstration test for vessel bottom inspection
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15:02 ICTSI's Matadi Gateway Terminal unlocks shipping system benefits
14:40 2nd conference on transportation of dangerous cargoes to address application of IMDG Code and ADR Agreement in Russia
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13:33 Ecochlor announces BWMS retrofit contract with Alaskan Tanker Company
13:02 GTT notified by Samsung Heavy Industries for the tank design of a new LNG carrier for Navigare
12:30 Gas4Sea partners and Equinor signed an LNG bunkering agreement
12:24 Social allocations of Multipurpose Reloading Complex grew by 22% YoY to RUB 3.8 million in 2018
12:01 Rail traffic at the Port of Gothenburg up to 398,000 TEUs in 2018
11:43 International best practices are introduced at ASCO to protect sailors health
11:41 Port of Hamburg sets record for seaport-hinterland rail traffic in 2018
11:39 IMO’s Sub-Committee on Pollution Prevention and Response meets this week
11:18 Concordia Damen celebrates naming of innovative Sendo Liner
11:15 ASCO hosted a training course for instructors
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2019 February 18

18:06 Algoma announces the Algoma Conveyor is headed for Canada
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17:06 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and the Mediterranean
16:41 MAN Energy Solutions launches new TCT turbocharger series
16:26 VSC receives positive conclusion of state environmental expertise
16:02 Herbert-ABS releases HECSTAB Offshore
15:31 PPR 6 preview: IBIA working for sensible 2020 solutions at IMO meeting
15:02 Suez Canal extends its dry bulk vessels tolls reduction
14:43 Gazprom and Almaz-Antey Corporation sign contract for batch manufacturing of subsea production equipment
14:20 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 15,842 in RF spot market
14:02 MOL Chemical Tankers acquires 20% share of Dutch tank container company Den Hartogh
13:39 2nd Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress to gather over 200 Russian and foreign participants
13:15 ONE unveils enhanced intra-Asia Japan service network for 2019
12:51 Nakhodka Trade Sea Port and Damen sign contract on delivery of tug by summer 2019
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11:53 World Maritime University signs MoU with Jordan Academy for Maritime Studies
11:30 Coastal fish assessments to continue in Baltic Sea with renewed HELCOM project
11:07 Fincantieri starts dry dock works on ultra-luxury cruise ship "Silver Moon"
10:55 Finnpilot Pilotage amendments its service terms during validity of winter assistance restrictions
10:26 ASCO is interested in cooperation with prominent shipping companies
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09:21 Baltic Dry Index is up to 639 points
09:07 Panama Canal Board of Directors appoints new Canal Administrator and Deputy Administrator
08:07 IMO conducts training course to enhance maritime security in Kenya
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2019 February 17

16:59 Coast Guard responds to vessel fire near Rockport, Texas
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2019 February 16

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2019 February 15

18:05 Noble Corporation announces purchase of a second newbuild jackup rig from PaxOcean