• 2018 June 14 13:47

    Global fuel market is waiting for some clarity from the Vienna meeting next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have had irregular changes with no firm trend during the week. Fuel market is looking into the global supply and demand picture to guess where the prices of oil and fuel are heading. Some are focusing on the loss of supply from Venezuela and a potential reduction of Iranian exports to justify the view that prices will be heading higher. Others are figuring that OPEC will reverse some of the production cuts in place and bring back as much as 1 million bpd to the market to offset any supply disruptions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) added some points in the period of Jun.07 – June 14, but it is still too early to talk about any firm trend:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 427.79 to 429,86 USD/MT (+2.07)
    180 HSFO - up from 469.00 to 471,79 USD/MT (+2.79)
    MGO        - up from 669.57 to 678.71 USD/MT (+9.14)

    The markets shrugged at the historic meeting between President Trump and North Korean dicta-tor Kim Jong Un. Both sides hailed the summit as a breakthrough, with a pledge towards denuclearization, but as expected, there was a lack of even the most basic details on how they might get there. According to a report by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Trump expressed his intention to halt U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, offer security guarantees to the North and lift sanctions against it as relations improve. However, it seems that the summit had yielded only symbolic results and nothing essential.

    OPEC’s efforts to erase the oil glut and lift oil prices paid off as the cartel reaped higher revenues from crude oil exports in 2017. But the rewards from the cuts were not evenly split among the cartel’s members. The biggest percentage gain in the value of petroleum exports was recorded in Libya (up 61 percent on the year to US$15 billion). The second was Qatar (up 55 percent to US$35.5 billion) and The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the third. The higher oil prices also helped most of the OPEC members (in particular Saudi Arabia, Libya, Venezuela, and Qatar) to improve their current account balances last year.

    Meantime, OPEC emphasized the deep uncertainty over the strength of demand for its oil just a week before contentious talks on whether to raise production. There’s a wide forecast range for how much crude the OPEC needs to pump in the second half of the year. With a range of 1.7 million barrels a day between the upper and lower estimates, demand could either be significantly higher, or slightly below, than OPEC’s current output.

    Besides, opposition to an increase in the OPEC/non-OPEC production limits continues to grow, with Iraq coming out against such a move. OPEC’s second largest producer said that the production cuts have not yet achieved the intended objective of balancing the oil market. The statement of opposition comes after Iran and Venezuela also called upon the group to keep the limits in place.

    The U.S. reportedly asked Saudi Arabia for higher oil production to offset Iranian outages, a request that was made before the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The apparent sudden shift in the Saudi position shortly after the conversation has annoyed a lot of OPEC members.  The comments raise the possibility of a contentious meeting in Vienna.

    Venezuela has begun testing seaborne oil transfers to ease a severe backlog of crude deliveries from its main terminals, as delays and production declines could temporarily halt state-run PDVSA’s supply contracts if they are not cleared soon. The delivery method entails specialized equipment and training and higher costs for ship owners and customers. Tankers waiting to load more than 24 million barrels of crude. Venezuela’s crude exports fell 6 percent in May to 1.168 million bpd while Venezuela’s crude exports in the first five months of 2018 were 27 percent lower than in the same period of 2017.

    Meantime, Russia’s oil production (the world’s biggest) had risen to 11.1 million bpd in early June, up from slightly below 11 million bpd in most of May and well above its target production of under 11 million bpd as part of the deal.

    The European Union has vowed to maintain the Iran nuclear deal despite the U.S. decision to exit, and Brussels has pushed back against Washington’s attempts to penalize European companies from doing business with Iran. However, some European companies have already begun cutting business ties with the Islamic Republic. Iran in turn said that it would ramp up work on its nuclear program if the EU is unable to offer enough security to ensure European companies can continue to operate in Iran.

    The estimates for how much Iranian oil U.S. sanctions will impact ranges. But the mass flight of top American and European companies, and the early signs of a significant decline in purchases from refiners around the world, plus the difficulty in finding shipping and insurance, all suggests that the supply disruptions could potentially be at the higher end.

    The number of new rigs drilling for oil in the United States rose by one last week to 862, its highest since March 2015. That suggests that U.S. crude output, already at a record high of 10.9 million barrels per day will climb further, which will continue to put downward pressure on fuel prices.

    China’s May crude oil imports eased away from a record high hit the month before. May shipments were 39.05 million tonnes, or 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd). That compared with 9.6 million bpd in April.

    We expect that bunker prices will likely change irregular over the next week until the fuel market gets some clarity from the Vienna meeting.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 January 21

21:25 Nine dead in two ships fire accident in the Kerch Strait
18:15 Port of Oakland hails shipping lines, terminal for clean air work
17:36 Evac acquires of UK service company Transvac
17:06 High Speed Transfers signs contract for third Damen FCS 2710 fast crew supplier
16:35 DFDS starts trials of Jinling Shipyard’s newbuild
16:05 Prototype most powerful wind turbine in the world Haliade-X 12 MW installed at Maasvlakte this summer
15:36 Incentive Scheme Climate-Friendly Shipping launched today
15:29 Yang Ming provides new China-Malaysia direct service
14:55 Szczecin-Świnoujście Port Complex handled over 28.6 million tonnes of cargo in 2018, up 12.5% Y-o-Y
14:33 Incat to build a new ship for the Government of Trinidad and Tobago
14:03 CMA CGM joins to the world’s largest operational agreement extention
13:27 Algoma receives full refund for shipbuilding contracts with Uljanik and 3Maj Shipyard
13:13 ESL Shipping strengthens its Chartering team
12:46 Leonid Mashaev appointed as Acting General Director of “State Customer’s Directorate for Seaborne Transport Development Programmes”
12:18 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 14,769 in RF spot market
11:49 Dublin Port’s сargo volumes up by 4.3% in 2018
11:22 FESCO and ZIH launching a container train from Germany to China through the Far East
10:55 14 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on January 20-21
10:27 TransContainer announced its preliminary operating results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2018
10:04 Brent Crude futures price up 0.41% to $62.94, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.43% to $54.28
09:40 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 2018 grew by 2% Y-o-Y to 14.05 million tonnes
09:19 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,112 points

2019 January 20

16:08 Subsea 7 acquires multi-purpose offshore construction and dive support vessel
15:03 TEPCO and Ørsted sign MoU to work jointly on offshore wind projects
13:51 Major contract for JSS awarded to Montreal-based company
12:42 Huntington Ingalls Industries to acquire Fulcrum IT Services
10:47 Algoma provides update on status of fleet renewal

2019 January 19

16:19 Ocean Yield acquires Suezmax tanker Milos for $56.0 million
15:16 Evac expansion continues with acquisition of UK service company Transvac Systems
14:02 Deltamarin contracted to continue with Titanic II project
12:51 SGRE launches 10 MW offshore wind turbine
11:44 Algoma increases its interest in the ocean self-unloader Pool

2019 January 18

18:06 North Carolina Ports sets new record in 2018
17:47 Freight turnover of Neva-Metal (Saint-Petersburg) in 2018 climbed by 3% Y-o-Y to about 3.2 million tonnes
17:25 Okskaya Sudoverf obtains patent for state-of-the-art pontoons
17:06 Hamburg prepares for ‘Hard Brexit’
16:44 Throughput of port Primorsk in 2018 fell by 7% Y-o-Y to 53.48 million tonnes
16:23 GTT receives a new order from SHI to design the tanks of two LNG carriers on behalf of Gaslog
16:20 NOVATEK elects new Board of Directors
15:56 Throughput of port Vyborg in 2018 grew by 25% Y-o-Y to 1.93 million tonnes
15:33 Stena Line’s first new generation ferry ‘floats’ in China
15:21 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in 2018 fell by 1.7% Y-o-Y to 49.8 million tonnes
15:03 Panama Direct service CMA CGM to resume weekly rotations
14:47 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 2018 climbed by 7% Y-o-Y to 18.79 million tonnes
14:33 GranIHC appointed contractor for Equinor’s Peregrino Phase II Project
14:19 Port of Ust-Luga handled 98.72 million tonnes in 2018, down 4% Y-o-Y
14:03 Algoma Central Corporation increases its interest in ocean self-unloader Pool
13:50 18 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on January 17-18
13:35 Throughput of the Port of St. Petersburg in 2018 up 11% Y-o-Y to 59.32 million tonnes
13:18 CMA CGM unites its Containerships and MacAndrews brands
13:11 Vladimir Putin supports Government’s proposal on expanding Far East Ministry’s functions with Arctic issues
12:49 Throughput of port Kavkaz in 2018 grew by 11% Y-o-Y to 49.276 million tonnes
12:26 MV Werften purchases Neptun Ship Design
12:08 Sakaide shipyard holds naming ceremony for new LNG carrier jointly owned by NYK and JERA
11:38 PGNiG SA signs agreement for oil and gas exploration and production in UAE
11:14 Remote pilotage to be allowed in Finland
10:47 Free zone status is a crucial advantage for the future development of the Freeport of Riga
10:06 Ice restrictions at the port of Ust-Luga come into effect on January 31
09:42 Brent Crude futures price up 0.9% to $61.73, Light Sweet Crude – up 1.09% to $52.64
09:20 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,077 points