• 2018 February 22 15:13

    MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices continued to post gains during the week, rising on the back of a weak dollar and comments from the participants of the OPEC+ deal that bolstered confidence in the longevity of the OPEC cuts. The broader upswing in equity markets also supported fuel indexes.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated moderate upward evolution in the period of Feb.15 - Feb.22:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 352.86 to 357,07 USD/MT (+4.21)
    180 HSFO - up from 391,79 to 394,36 USD/MT (+2.57)
    MGO         - up from 597.64 to 603,21  USD/MT (+5.57)


    A study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies predicts that the standoff between U.S. shale and OPEC could keep oil prices trapped between a price band of $60 and $75 per barrel. If prices rise to the upper end of that band, more shale output will drag prices back down. But the OPEC cuts will prevent prices from falling much below $60.

    Some support to the fuel indexes was rendered by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that OPEC would do better to leave the market tight than end the deal on cutting output too soon.

    Meantime, OPEC and the non-OPEC producers' part of the production cuts deal may have a plan for long-term cooperation drafted by the end of 2018, as they seek to institutionalize their current collaboration into a supergroup of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea to follow up on the current OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation came originally from OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo. Saudi Arabia confirmed that there is a readiness to continue cooperation beyond 2018. The mechanism hasn't been determined yet, but there is a consensus to continue.

    Besides, OPEC plans to discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil stockpiles. One possible new measurement would be to assess how long existing inventories would meet demand, or forward-day cover. Group of OPEC+ countries considers that more coordination is needed to assess inventories. It is expected that the issue will be discussed on April's meeting.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed it will cut additional 100,000 bpd of its oil production next month and keep its exports below 7 million bpd in March. The kingdom lifted its January production by 23,300 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, but still below its 10.058-million-bpd quota, overcomplying once again.

    Russia's economy in turn may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC+ oil production cut deal. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million bpd in November 2016. However, Russian Central Bank warned recently that the OPEC+ deal along with weaker demand for natural gas from abroad will temporary curb a growth in Russian production. Russian oil companies have also complained that the continued production cuts interfered with their growth plans, which led to speculation that Moscow could try to push OPEC for an earlier end to the deal.

    Venezuela is going to look for other buyers of its crude oil, should the United States carry out a threat to impose an oil embargo on the country. A full oil embargo, if made, could have serious consequences for U.S. refineries (that use Venezuela's heavy crude) as well. Meantime the amount of oil Venezuela shipped to the United States over the past year drop sharply: from 23.2 million barrels in January 2017 down to 16.652 million barrels in November. For comparison, in 2005 Venezuelan oil imports to the US were around 50 million barrels.

    The rebound in U.S. production is undermining efforts to curb supplies. It rose last week, hitting 10.27 million bpd, which would be a record if confirmed by monthly figures. November's monthly data showed production in the United States rose to 10.04 million bpd, and the country now ranks second in overall production. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, also rose last week by 7 to 798, its highest since April 2015. The EIA expects U.S. production to top 11 million bpd in late 2018, a year earlier than projected last month.

    China's crude oil demand growth could slow down this year to 4.2 percent from 2017 (growth by only 0.5 million bpd) versus 5.5 percent last year. In 2017 China turned into the world's top oil importer as its crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis for most of the year. January crude imports also jumped to a new record, at 9.57 million barrels daily, but forecasts of slower GDP growth may change optimistic projections.

    India's oil imports in turn rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. It pushed crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million bpd in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 and January 2017. Economic growth in India is also expected to be strong over the next few years, supporting fuel consumption as a growing number of the huge population enter a higher-income slot and buy their first cars. As a result, India's oil demand may become one of the key oil market drivers in the coming years.

    About 15 super-tankers are currently filled with oil floating off the coasts of Singapore and surrounding Malaysia. That's slightly less than last November, and half the number of tankers used for storage in mid-2017. Onshore tanks in the region are also not booked out any more. The fall in storage could be considered as a sign production restraint started by OPEC+ deal in January 2017 is having the intended effect of reducing a global glut.
     
    We expect bunker prices will follow the general trend of the global fuel market and continue slight upward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 December 13

18:43 Coal exports via Rosterminalugol hit 19-millionth tonne mark
18:28 Port of Kaliningrad throughput in Jan-Nov rose 4% to nearly 13 million tonnes
18:25 Tideway completes installation of longest AC offshore wind export cable at Hornsea One in the UK
17:49 Hapag-Lloyd to cancel calls at Port of Bremerhaven
17:25 Building of Johan Sverdrup Phase II begins
17:19 Port of Vyborg 11-month cargo volumes soar 24% to 1.72 million tonnes
17:13 Seabridge first in Belgium to receive the SCA certificate
17:08 Jan De Nul cleans up polluted beaches along the coast in southern France
17:07 Bunker fuel prices at Far Eastern ports close the week lower
16:47 Port of Vysotsk cargo volume in Jan-Nov rises 6% to 16.86 million tonnes
16:36 Maersk Broker Bulk Chartering and NAODAN Chartering
16:26 YILPORT Holding wins Port Operator Award at Lloyd’s List Global Awards
16:03 Rosmorport releases RFPs for design of an DF 12/14MW icebreaker
15:49 Jotun and Kansai Paint build relationship to meet marine and protective demand
15:46 Baltic Sea Ports Authority icebreakers assist merchant vessels in the Gulf of Finland
15:21 Containerships receives its first LNG-powered container vessel
14:44 Uncertainty lingers in fuel markets despite OPEC cuts
14:17 Maersk Line receives Containership Operator of the Year award
14:13 Iran-Indonesia to develop port cooperation
13:22 NOIA: U.S. territories need the Offshore Wind for Territories Act
13:12 QPS inks first "Green Loan" with BNP Paribas
12:48 Panama Canal signs agreement with Brazil's Port of Itaqui
12:32 Port of Ust-Luga throughput in Jan-Nov drops 4% to 90.27 million tonnes (updates)
11:34 Port of St. Petersburg eleven-month volume rises 11% to 54.15 million tonnes (updated)
11:06 Nonius Engineering to join the 6th International Forum of Dredging Companies as its sponsor and speaker
10:16 Crude oil futures gain to $ 60,44 (Brent) and $ 51,32 (WTI)
09:07 Baltic Dry Index down 0.81% to 1353 points
08:34 CMA CGM receives the Environment Award at the Lloyd’s List Global Awards

2018 December 12

19:08 Hapag-Lloyd announces General Rate Increase from East Asia to USA and Canada
18:30 MEYER WERFT handed over AIDAnova to AIDA Cruises
18:21 IMO led panel discussion on wreck removal challenges at Salvage & Wreck Removal Conference in London
18:00 Newbuilding methanol carrier for Proman Shipping named CASTARA
18:00 Rosneft develops innovations for Russian Zvezda super-shipyard
17:46 Damen signs with Port Nelson for ASD Tug 2411
17:37 Almaz shipyard lays down icebreaker of Project 21180М, Yevpaty Kolovrat, for RF Navy
17:14 Comprehensive plan for NSR development to be ready by February 2019 – Yevgeny Ditrikh
16:49 Investments in the Arctic by 2024 estimated at RUB 5.5 trillion - Dmity Kobylkin
16:23 Vladimir Putin orders to look into creation of port SEZ at Olya port in Arkhangelsk Region
15:50 Throughput of Russian seaports in 11M’18 grew by 4.2% Y-o-Y to 746.8 million tonnes (detalization)
15:26 Okskaya Sudoverf launches first dry cargo carrier of Project RSD32M
15:02 American Petroleum Institute (API) awards bolt fatigue testing program contract to DNV GL
14:25 Giant Octopus added to the CPC’s stock of ER equipment
14:01 London hosts global port environment experts
13:20 Pola Anatolia, dry cargo ship of RSD59 design, successfully passed sea trials
13:01 Newcastle Container Terminal to deliver savings for regional NSW
12:36 Sovcomflot BoD considered the Group’s financial plan for 2019 and a forecast for 2020-2021
12:01 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Ismene with Koch
11:49 Yury Trutnev appointed as head of revised State Commission for Arctic Development
11:22 Three icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on December 11-12
11:00 COSCO SHIPPING Ports partners with Abu Dhabi Ports to create regional trading hub and Middle East gateway for Belt and Road
10:47 Throughput of Rostov-on-Don port in 11M’18 up 15% Y-o-Y to 22.9 million tonnes
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 1.16% to $60.9, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.67% to $52.3
10:11 Full bonded area is opened in Port Bronka
10:01 WMU welcomes ITF General Secretary and President
09:59 GTT receives an order for the tank design of two new LNG carriers
09:44 Bunker prices continue going down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,364 points
09:15 LNG carrier Christophe de Margerie loads first cargo from Yamal LNG third train
08:28 Boskalis Ndurance’ cable trencher successfully tested at Alexiahaven
08:05 Maritime Blockchain Labs announces new consortium to improve crew management