• 2018 February 22 15:13

    MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices continued to post gains during the week, rising on the back of a weak dollar and comments from the participants of the OPEC+ deal that bolstered confidence in the longevity of the OPEC cuts. The broader upswing in equity markets also supported fuel indexes.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated moderate upward evolution in the period of Feb.15 - Feb.22:
    380 HSFO - up from 352.86 to 357,07 USD/MT (+4.21)
    180 HSFO - up from 391,79 to 394,36 USD/MT (+2.57)
    MGO         - up from 597.64 to 603,21  USD/MT (+5.57)

    A study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies predicts that the standoff between U.S. shale and OPEC could keep oil prices trapped between a price band of $60 and $75 per barrel. If prices rise to the upper end of that band, more shale output will drag prices back down. But the OPEC cuts will prevent prices from falling much below $60.

    Some support to the fuel indexes was rendered by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that OPEC would do better to leave the market tight than end the deal on cutting output too soon.

    Meantime, OPEC and the non-OPEC producers' part of the production cuts deal may have a plan for long-term cooperation drafted by the end of 2018, as they seek to institutionalize their current collaboration into a supergroup of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea to follow up on the current OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation came originally from OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo. Saudi Arabia confirmed that there is a readiness to continue cooperation beyond 2018. The mechanism hasn't been determined yet, but there is a consensus to continue.

    Besides, OPEC plans to discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil stockpiles. One possible new measurement would be to assess how long existing inventories would meet demand, or forward-day cover. Group of OPEC+ countries considers that more coordination is needed to assess inventories. It is expected that the issue will be discussed on April's meeting.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed it will cut additional 100,000 bpd of its oil production next month and keep its exports below 7 million bpd in March. The kingdom lifted its January production by 23,300 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, but still below its 10.058-million-bpd quota, overcomplying once again.

    Russia's economy in turn may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC+ oil production cut deal. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million bpd in November 2016. However, Russian Central Bank warned recently that the OPEC+ deal along with weaker demand for natural gas from abroad will temporary curb a growth in Russian production. Russian oil companies have also complained that the continued production cuts interfered with their growth plans, which led to speculation that Moscow could try to push OPEC for an earlier end to the deal.

    Venezuela is going to look for other buyers of its crude oil, should the United States carry out a threat to impose an oil embargo on the country. A full oil embargo, if made, could have serious consequences for U.S. refineries (that use Venezuela's heavy crude) as well. Meantime the amount of oil Venezuela shipped to the United States over the past year drop sharply: from 23.2 million barrels in January 2017 down to 16.652 million barrels in November. For comparison, in 2005 Venezuelan oil imports to the US were around 50 million barrels.

    The rebound in U.S. production is undermining efforts to curb supplies. It rose last week, hitting 10.27 million bpd, which would be a record if confirmed by monthly figures. November's monthly data showed production in the United States rose to 10.04 million bpd, and the country now ranks second in overall production. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, also rose last week by 7 to 798, its highest since April 2015. The EIA expects U.S. production to top 11 million bpd in late 2018, a year earlier than projected last month.

    China's crude oil demand growth could slow down this year to 4.2 percent from 2017 (growth by only 0.5 million bpd) versus 5.5 percent last year. In 2017 China turned into the world's top oil importer as its crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis for most of the year. January crude imports also jumped to a new record, at 9.57 million barrels daily, but forecasts of slower GDP growth may change optimistic projections.

    India's oil imports in turn rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. It pushed crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million bpd in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 and January 2017. Economic growth in India is also expected to be strong over the next few years, supporting fuel consumption as a growing number of the huge population enter a higher-income slot and buy their first cars. As a result, India's oil demand may become one of the key oil market drivers in the coming years.

    About 15 super-tankers are currently filled with oil floating off the coasts of Singapore and surrounding Malaysia. That's slightly less than last November, and half the number of tankers used for storage in mid-2017. Onshore tanks in the region are also not booked out any more. The fall in storage could be considered as a sign production restraint started by OPEC+ deal in January 2017 is having the intended effect of reducing a global glut.
    We expect bunker prices will follow the general trend of the global fuel market and continue slight upward evolution next week.







    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)

2018 March 17

06:48 Seatrade convicted for trafficking toxic ships

2018 March 16

18:06 Rijkswaterstaat awards Afsluitdijk project to Levvel consortium
17:36 HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai handles new record ship
17:05 ICS publishes latest Flag State Performance Table
16:51 Vladimir Putin inspected the completed new road section of the Crimean Bridge
16:35 Wison successfully delivers the global largest single cracking furnace module
16:20 GTT announces the end of the test phase of its new LNG brick® technology
16:05 Fincantieri starts building of ultra-luxury cruise ship for Regent Seven Seas Cruises
15:30 Caterpillar Marine announces first European IMO Tier III tugboat
15:03 Throughput of port Kavkaz up 67% to 4.3 million tonnes in 2M’18
14:39 Port of Hamburg proves effectiveness in handling mega-carriers
14:05 Training for port facility security staff arranged in the Dominican Republic
13:42 Multipurpose Reloading Complex takes lead in the industry
13:20 Karachi Shipyards & Engineering Works delivers two Damen Stan Patrol 1605 FRP patrol boats to Pakistan Customs
13:17 Bunker prices continue going down at the port of Novorossiysk, Russia (graph)
12:51 52 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 15-16
12:28 Seaports of Russia’s Azov Sea Basin handled 16.77 million tonnes of cargo in winter 2017-2018, up 63.8% Y-o-Y
12:04 Latin America maritime cooperation centre launched
11:40 Vympel Shipyard laid down second armament support ship of Project 20360М for RF Defence Ministry (photo)
11:15 Vostochny Port JSC develops railway infrastructure under its Phase 3 project (photo)
10:52 IMO joined leading oil spill experts to discuss future issues concerning oil spill preparedness, response and restoration
10:27 Brent Crude futures price down 0.11% to $65.05, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.05% to $61.16
10:09 Panama Canal signs agreement with Association of Soybean and Corn Producers of Mato Grosso
09:48 IMO is looking at safety aspects of on shore power supply to ships
09:34 Bunker prices are flat at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:16 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,150 points
09:03 Damen unveils Multi Cat Water Injection Dredger

2018 March 15

18:25 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to the Mediterranean
18:11 ICS releases latest Flag State Performance Table (with new criteria included)
18:05 Fincantieri will cooperate with Barzan Holdings
17:57 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 2M’18 up 16% Y-o-Y to 2.32 million tonnes
17:35 Second Sanmar Voith Schneider Propeller tug joins sister in Israel
17:20 Throughput of port Vyborg up 19% to 197,800 tonnes in 2M’18
17:05 Seaspan acquires Greater China Intermodal Investments LLC
17:02 MABUX: global bunker market still in 'wait-and-see' mood
16:35 DP World announces strong financial results for 2017
16:16 Throughput of port Vysotsk down 5% to 3.06 million tonnes in 2M’18
16:05 ECSA and WSC call for the revision of the Reporting Formalities Directive to improve the efficiency of maritime transport
15:39 Port of Oakland imports up 14.9 percent in February 2018
15:31 Sanmar orders 42 Rolls-Royce thrusters
15:22 Coastal facilities and hydraulic engineering structures under FNPP project in Chukotka to be completed in August 2019
15:07 Port of Dover awards major contract for new Refrigerated Cargo Terminal
14:33 Yang Ming to launch new Japan-Malaysia-Vietnam direct service
14:11 Throughput of port Primorsk in 2M’18 down 32% Y-o-Y to 7.47 million tonnes
13:50 Throughput of port Ust-Luga up 6% to 16.59 million tonnes in 2M'18
13:25 VARD secures contract for the construction of one fishing vessel for Remøybuen AS
13:12 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 11% to 9.01 million tonnes in 2M’18
12:30 Paweł Jakubowski appointed as President of Polskie LNG S.A. Management Board
11:45 Freeport of Riga is getting ready for new cruise ship season
11:44 MOL announces delivery of the Beluga Ace, 1st next-generation FLEXIE series car carrier
11:23 34 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 14-15
11:00 Bunker prices are going up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:38 Marine Recruiting Agency and Corporate University “Norilsk Nickel” take on joint educational project
10:14 Brent Crude futures price up 0.05% to $64.92, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.11% to $61.03
09:49 Arctic Council will gather in Levi, Finland on 22-23 March 2018
09:17 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,169 points

2018 March 14

18:26 Port of Antwerp sets up maritime training institute in Brazil
18:06 Port of Oakland releases a new 5-year strategic plan
17:55 Baltic Workboats delivers ten more 15m Baltic wave piercing pilot boats to Denmark pilots stations
17:36 Fincantieri upgrades ultra-luxury cruise ship Silver Spirit