• 2018 February 22 15:13

    MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices continued to post gains during the week, rising on the back of a weak dollar and comments from the participants of the OPEC+ deal that bolstered confidence in the longevity of the OPEC cuts. The broader upswing in equity markets also supported fuel indexes.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated moderate upward evolution in the period of Feb.15 - Feb.22:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 352.86 to 357,07 USD/MT (+4.21)
    180 HSFO - up from 391,79 to 394,36 USD/MT (+2.57)
    MGO         - up from 597.64 to 603,21  USD/MT (+5.57)


    A study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies predicts that the standoff between U.S. shale and OPEC could keep oil prices trapped between a price band of $60 and $75 per barrel. If prices rise to the upper end of that band, more shale output will drag prices back down. But the OPEC cuts will prevent prices from falling much below $60.

    Some support to the fuel indexes was rendered by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that OPEC would do better to leave the market tight than end the deal on cutting output too soon.

    Meantime, OPEC and the non-OPEC producers' part of the production cuts deal may have a plan for long-term cooperation drafted by the end of 2018, as they seek to institutionalize their current collaboration into a supergroup of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea to follow up on the current OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation came originally from OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo. Saudi Arabia confirmed that there is a readiness to continue cooperation beyond 2018. The mechanism hasn't been determined yet, but there is a consensus to continue.

    Besides, OPEC plans to discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil stockpiles. One possible new measurement would be to assess how long existing inventories would meet demand, or forward-day cover. Group of OPEC+ countries considers that more coordination is needed to assess inventories. It is expected that the issue will be discussed on April's meeting.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed it will cut additional 100,000 bpd of its oil production next month and keep its exports below 7 million bpd in March. The kingdom lifted its January production by 23,300 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, but still below its 10.058-million-bpd quota, overcomplying once again.

    Russia's economy in turn may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC+ oil production cut deal. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million bpd in November 2016. However, Russian Central Bank warned recently that the OPEC+ deal along with weaker demand for natural gas from abroad will temporary curb a growth in Russian production. Russian oil companies have also complained that the continued production cuts interfered with their growth plans, which led to speculation that Moscow could try to push OPEC for an earlier end to the deal.

    Venezuela is going to look for other buyers of its crude oil, should the United States carry out a threat to impose an oil embargo on the country. A full oil embargo, if made, could have serious consequences for U.S. refineries (that use Venezuela's heavy crude) as well. Meantime the amount of oil Venezuela shipped to the United States over the past year drop sharply: from 23.2 million barrels in January 2017 down to 16.652 million barrels in November. For comparison, in 2005 Venezuelan oil imports to the US were around 50 million barrels.

    The rebound in U.S. production is undermining efforts to curb supplies. It rose last week, hitting 10.27 million bpd, which would be a record if confirmed by monthly figures. November's monthly data showed production in the United States rose to 10.04 million bpd, and the country now ranks second in overall production. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, also rose last week by 7 to 798, its highest since April 2015. The EIA expects U.S. production to top 11 million bpd in late 2018, a year earlier than projected last month.

    China's crude oil demand growth could slow down this year to 4.2 percent from 2017 (growth by only 0.5 million bpd) versus 5.5 percent last year. In 2017 China turned into the world's top oil importer as its crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis for most of the year. January crude imports also jumped to a new record, at 9.57 million barrels daily, but forecasts of slower GDP growth may change optimistic projections.

    India's oil imports in turn rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. It pushed crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million bpd in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 and January 2017. Economic growth in India is also expected to be strong over the next few years, supporting fuel consumption as a growing number of the huge population enter a higher-income slot and buy their first cars. As a result, India's oil demand may become one of the key oil market drivers in the coming years.

    About 15 super-tankers are currently filled with oil floating off the coasts of Singapore and surrounding Malaysia. That's slightly less than last November, and half the number of tankers used for storage in mid-2017. Onshore tanks in the region are also not booked out any more. The fall in storage could be considered as a sign production restraint started by OPEC+ deal in January 2017 is having the intended effect of reducing a global glut.
     
    We expect bunker prices will follow the general trend of the global fuel market and continue slight upward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 June 19

13:02 Rijkswaterstaat awarded Van Oord the contract to dredge Marker Wadden channel
12:32 MOL to make full-scale move into subsea support vessel business by acquiring stake in AKOFS of Norway
12:28 HELCOM Heads of Delegation approve Baltic Sea Action Plan update process and welcome new HELCOM Chair
12:02 Bunker prices continue growing at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:37 Damen and Saab announce partnership to participate on the tender for the Tamandaré Class Corvette
11:34 Saturnus, first vessel in the Evolution series, launched at AVIC
11:09 Marine Technics and Alexeev’s Hydrofoil Design Bureau extend joint projects
10:45 Arctia appoints Senior Vice President for Offshore and Marine Services
10:23 Brent Crude futures price down 0.64% to $74.86, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.62% to $65.28
10:01 Small missile ships of RF Navy’s Caspian Flotilla sail from Sevastopol to Mediterranean Sea
09:40 Rescuers of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet train in rendering assistance to submarine in Kola Bay
09:16 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,442 points

2018 June 18

18:12 Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company takes part in TransCaspian/Translogistica 2018
17:57 Legislative amendment promotes automatisation tests in maritime transport with regard to manning and watchkeeping
17:35 First major forum on the new Silk Road organised by the Port of Marseille Fos
17:05 Aker Solutions teams up with SAP for next steps in digitalizing its business
16:45 HMM signs Letter of Intent for its mega containership orders
16:24 Victor Olersky handed in his resignation notice
16:18 European Council extends sanctions on Crimea and Sevastopol for another year
16:05 DryShips announces agreements to sell two older Panamaxes
15:40 Tuapse Commercial Seaport elected seven BoD members
15:33 Poland holds World Maritime Day Parallel Event
15:13 IMO member states must progress on key sulphur cap issues at critical meeting in July
14:59 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 17,923 in RF spot market
14:13 Navios Maritime Containers announces acquisition of five containerships and options to acquire four additional containerships
13:35 Maersk launches a new line to the Middle East from Fos
13:00 Aker Arctic demonstrates autonomous vessel in model tests
12:36 ABB to improve Edda Fides floating hotel safety with leading digital technology
11:47 Freeport of Riga Authority and Port of Rotterdam Authority sign cooperation agreement
11:24 Port of Tallinn signs MoU with the City of Tallinn for development of the Old City Harbour area
11:01 Dorian LPG Board declines BW LPG'S unsolicited proposal
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.76% to $72.88, Light Sweet Crude – down 1.73% to $63.73
10:12 Capital Product Partners L.P. announces new period charters for four of its product tankers
10:03 Port of Silloth invests £250,000 in new solar farm on Marshall Dock
09:41 Fishers fatalities give impetus to fishing vessel safety work
09:18 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,445 points

2018 June 17

18:40 Port of Oakland's largest terminal operator OK new lease to 2027
18:38 GoodBulk Ltd. announces delivery of Capesize vessel
18:32 Navios Maritime Partners announces sale of containership and options to sell four additional containerships

2018 June 15

18:35 Hapag-Lloyd implements Peak Season Surcharge from Mediterranean to USA
18:05 Wallenius Wilhelmsen Ocean adds Adelaide on the Australia service
17:54 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 5M’18 up 12% Y-o-Y to 6.05 million tonnes
17:35 GTT conducts two FEED studies on two types of Gravity Based System
17:20 Throughput of port Vyborg in 5M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 610,900 tonnes
17:05 Port of Koper officially part of the New Silk Road
16:40 Yantar Shipyard launches yet another trawler of Project SK-3101R
16:35 Port of Long Beach volume up to 687,427 TEU in May 2018
16:05 Royal IHC joins PortXL
15:45 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 5M’18 declined by 3% Y-o-Y to 7.49 million tonnes
15:22 Main phase of Nizhegorodsky hydrosystem project obtains state expert approval
15:21 VTG FastTrack makes ad hoc transportation from the Port of Hamburg possible
15:00 Vopak opens new rail infrastructure in the port of Antwerp
14:21 Royal IHC and IHC IQIP sign memorandum of agreement with SOIC
14:09 DNV GL issues first type approval for aluminium cables onboard ships
13:16 Throughput of port Primorsk in 5M’18 down 18% Y-o-Y to 22.63 million tonnes
12:48 Bunker prices are down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
12:27 Innovative solution for lowering of ship emissions tested in the port of Rotterdam
12:23 LUKOIL commissions third well at Filanovsky field second stage
11:59 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 5M’18 down 1% to 41.48 million tonnes
11:31 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 16% to 24.73 million tonnes in 5M’18